Who is the GOP frontrunner, really? When will he emerge, if he does? I used to think Fred Thompson was going to get the GOP nomination without much struggle, that he would cruise into it like he seems to cruise along with most things. Now I'm not so sure.

As beholden as the GOP is to the evangelical Christian voters, they find themselves in a real dilemma as people of stature in the evangelical community such as James Dobson have panned the group of GOP contenders. While Dobson may be far from the sharpest tool in the shed, he packs a great deal of political influence, and the Armageddon crowd tends to listen to people like him.

There was an item on CNN this morning about some vote taken after the GOP candidates finished a debate at a "values summit". Romney and Huckabee were virtually tied for first at 27% or 28%, Ron Paul had 15% and Thompson had something like 10%. McCain and Rudy had less than 2% each! Hmmm, that only adds up to about 75% or so. Does that mean 25% voted for "none of the above"? Heh...

Given their reliance on religion to win elections, I don't think the GOP can really think seriously about nominating Giuliani, even though he is portraying himself as the "tough guy" so many Republican voters seem to think we all need. I do think nominating him could be their kiss of death for 2008, and if a third party emerged, a Giuliani nomination could cause the Republicans to lose a lot of votes to, say, a Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee if one of those guys ran as an Independent.

I think McCain has been toast for a long time, thus I don't consider him as a serious candidate at this point. I guess that's one area in which I agree with evangelical voters.

Romney seems to be scoring points with the "values" herd, despite his being a Mormon. He probably IS squeaky-clean, but he has flipped his stance on so many things that they probably would be very leery of nominating him. Once the evangelicals decide to learn more about Mormonism, about how the Book of Mormon flies in the face of all they have been brought up to believe as fundamentalist Christians, they might decide "no way" on Mitt. For a lot of those voters, voting for Romney might be like voting against their faith for the sake of keeping the "family values" stuff in the forefront. So what if Mitt has been "saved" or not, if he hasn't been "saved" their way, they won't view him as having been "saved".

Thompson still appears as an empty suit to me, and I'm guessing his support base is mostly made up of those who are desperate for another Ronald Reagan and who hang on to the extremely slim hope that Thompson is that guy. Maybe his supporters think he can actually be another "great leader" like a Reagan (?) or a JFK. I don't know if he is being torpedoed by the media with all the stories about him not knowing the issues and basically being lazy, but if so it doesn't bother me. I think he's about the last of the current GOP guys we need in the White House right now, maybe with the exception of Tancredo.

As for Mike Huckabee, he's an ordained Baptist minister. He has been gaining more attention lately. He doesn't have the money of Giuliani, Romney or McCain, but he seems to be getting more kudos from the religious crowd. I would not be surprised to see him emerge as a more serious contender as we get closer to the Republican convention. I think he will give the religious voters some hope.

Ron Paul is against the war, sure. He is also very pro-life and very anti-"big government". If he somehow got elected, would be sacrificing on the social front while he found out he wasn't going to have any more luck getting us out of Iraq than any of the people in the Democratic field? Given that the two major parties tend to suck up all the money and publicity, and that Paul is basically a Libertarian, I could see him running as a third party candidate. If he does it, from whom will he take the most votes? I think he would take more votes from the anti-war Republican voters than he would from the Democrats. I think most on the left do want the war to end, but I also don't know why someone on the left would choose Paul on the basis of the war issue alone, since he and the Democratic candidates are pretty much in agreement on that one... and they are all going to be more progressive on the social issues than he is. I think he could get 10% to 15% of the popular vote, with the majority of his votes coming from disaffected Republican voters.

Republicans have to be scared and disappointed about their prospects for 2008. Even the far-right Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review, panned the GOP candidates in a column that was in our local paper yesterday.

I'll use an expression which some of you might find tasteless, but this is like handicapping the handicapped... but I'll try. Here is the order in which I think this pathetic group will finish come convention time. And I'll go out on a limb, too.

1 (tie). Huckabee - he will be nominated because he is most favorable to the "religious right".
1 (tie). Romney - he will finish high because of his "values" schtick but his Mormonism may sink him.
3. Giuliani - he isn't religious enough, will seem to be too much of a one-issue candidate, and will be revealed as a truly aggressive asshole as the campaign progresses.
4. Paul - his anti-war stance will hurt him more than it will help him.
5. Thompson - I think the "empty suit" factor will sink him... the sooner the better.
6. McCain - heh...
7. Tancredo - was he ever really serious about doing anything other than giving national attention to his xenophobia?

If Huckabee gets the nomination, I don't believe any of the other guys in the field will be humble enough to accept an invite to be the VP. I'd look for some Southern politician, whether a Governor, Representative or Senator to be chosen. If Romney gets the nod, I could see him asking Huckabee to be the VP.

What a pathetic bunch. It sure looks as if any of them would be very easy to beat in a national election. America's Republicans surely must be disjointed, disaffected, distraught. Looks like we should have a Democratic White House beginning 1/20/09!

On the other hand... what if the Democrats choose to run a candidate who inspires such hatred in so many Republicans that it proves a boon to GOP fund-raising and voter mobilization? That is the scenario I see unfolding, and I think it is really the last thing the left wants. I sure hope the Democrats aren't looking for ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but looking at current trends, it seems like they are about to make what could be a tragic political mistake, of historic proportions. Why the Democrats would choose to give the Republicans ANY advantage is beyond me, when one considers what is at stake.

So who are these guys in the GOP field, really? Or does it really matter?

Whoever gets the GOP nomination, I'm beginning to think that if the Democrats don't get their act together, the 2008 presidential election is going to be unnecessarily close...